So, my point is that the Cubs are so, so close to being in a position to call themselves legitimate championship contenders. But you'd have to be wearing some fairly heavy-duty Cubbie Blue glasses to suggest there aren't a few places for improvement. Let's take a look at the current first choice starting lineup.
1. Johnson/Fukudome-CF
2. Theriot-SS
3. Lee-1B
4. Ramirez-3B
5. Bradley-RF
6. Soriano-LF
7. Soto-C
8. Fonenot/Baker-2B
Soto has been injured, but is progressing, and should be back by mid-August. Lee's been a rock all season, as has Theriot. Ramirez is just getting healthy, and Soriano is starting to go on a hot streak, and his move down in the order has greatly helped balance the Cubs lineup. Based on the season's performance, there are three spots that could be improved. Let's take a look.
Center Field-The least concerning position. Kosuke Fukudome has recovered from his apparently annual June nosedive, and Reed Johnson is a gamer, a veteran player who can contribute. This isn't a real position of worry, and Kosuke probably isn't going anywhere, so the only way another player becomes an option in center is if the Cubs move Milton Bradley. Which brings us to our next, and slightly more concerning, trouble spot.
Right Field-Milton Bradley has been a disaster on all fronts. I'll never know why the Cubs sold the farm to get him, trading away Mark DeRosa being the biggest mistake. The stated reasoning was a desire to get more left-handed after watching the Dodgers right-handed pitching completely fool the Cubs en route to a sweep in the 2008 NLDS. That led to a desire to bring in a left-handed run producer. There's one giant flaw in that logic, however. Mark DeRosa hit .275 against right-handed pitching last year, with 16 homers and 64 RBI. His replacement, Bradley,
hit .312 with 12 homers and 52 RBI. He also struck out 79 times against righties (compared to DeRosa's 73) in 75 fewer at-bats. And anyone who watched the Cubs all year, including the playoffs, could have told you that the problems with the bats in the playoffs were there all season. They have a streaky offense, built around the home run. They average 5 runs a game, sure, but they get there by scoring 10 one game and 0 the next. And in the playoffs, when Soriano and Ramirez started swinging for the fences every at-bat, they collapsed. (Ironically, DeRosa's Game 1 home run was the offensive highlight of the series.)
So, instead of fixing the actual problems (which they only just recognized a month or so ago, when they fired hitting coach Gerald Perry) they switched out DeRosa for Bradley. This was the worst possible direction to go. Jim Hendry took an anchor in the clubhouse, a player who provided average to above average defensive cover at 6 positions, and a value guy ($5.5 million in 2009) and turned him into a clubhouse nightmare, a player lacking any semblance of focus (just ask him how many outs there are), a player who's average to below-average in his one position, a player who's played more than 100 games three times in his career (including last year, when he primarily DH'd for the Rangers) and a player who's never driven in more than 77 runs in a season. And he paid him $7 million this season, with even more coming the next two years. And, in an amazing turn of events, it's blown up in his face. Bradley is so bad from the left side that Lou Piniella has been forced to address questions about Bradley sticking to the right side only. What a disaster that would be. To make matters worse, three other options the Cubs should have considered have been great. Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, and Raul Ibanez were all available. Abreu would have been the best value, eventually signing for $5 million. He's better defensively than Bradley, is a more steady clubhouse presence, has hit .314 with 66 RBI, and with 20 steals would be leading the Cubs by a large margin. Plus, his reasonable contract would have allowed the Cubs to keep Mark DeRosa at 2nd, and by extension, keep him out of the Cardinals lineup.
Imagining this as the Cubs opening day lineup in 2009 is tough to stomach, knowing what the reality is.
1. Fukudome
2. Theriot
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Abreu
6. Soriano
7. DeRosa
8. Soto
Wow. Hurts to think about, to be honest. It would have made the Cubs a much deeper team, keeping Fontenot as a bench player (which his 2009 performance suggests he's best suited for) and would have eliminated the need to sign Aaron Miles, whom the Cubs are currently paying $2.2 million to stay on an "extended rehab assignment" at AAA Iowa, where he's 13-59, and at that rate, looks to stay on the 15-day DL for about 100 days. (And, let it be known, I'm completely fine with that. He hurts the team by being on the roster. How Tony LaRussa got anything out of him I'll never know.) DeRosa also would have provided cover when Aramis Ramirez missed two months. And it would have worked on the payroll side, since the Abreu/DeRosa total ($10.5 for just 2009) is far more manageble than the Bradley/Miles combo ($9.2 for 2009, but Miles is due $2 million more in 2010, while Bradley has $23 million coming over the next two seasons.) The Cubs could have swung $1.3 million.
But anyway. That's where they went wrong. As for what they can do to fix it, well, that's a problem. It's hard to imagine them moving Bradley, because it's hard to imagine anyone wanting him. But if they could find a way, one of the three players I mentioned earlier would be a great fit. Adam Dunn. The Nationals are offloading veterans like crazy. Dunn is a huge left-handed bat that does nothing but drive in runs, he's hitting .278 with 25 homers, 73 RBI, and a hefty .405 OBP/.959 OPS. Plus, he does his best work against righties, with 20 of his homers and 50 of his RBI coming against them, to go with an OPS of 1.041. Wow. Sure, he's a butcher in the outfield, but Bradley's not exactly Clemente, and at least Dunn would make up for the runs he allows in. But, as I said, it's hard to envision Hendry giving up on Bradley, and it's hard to see the Cubs dealing for a player like Dunn with Bradley still on the roster.
Second Base-The Mike Fontenot/Jeff Baker platoon hasn't been great. Fontenot has regressed with more playing time (although his forced shift to 3rd base, thanks to Hendry's failure to acquire a backup that had actually played third base, probably had something to do with his slump) and it's too early to judge Baker, but it's hard to get excited about a 28 year-old whose previous organization gave up on in exchange for a 23 year-old single-A pitching prospect. That's what makes the DeRosa decision so tough to take, along with the sight of 2008 free agent Orlando Hudson lighting it up for the Dodgers. (For the record, the Cubs could have had Hudson/Abreu for $8.3 million in 2009, almost a million cheaper than the Miles/Bradley duo. Fantastic.) As for what's out there now, Freddy Sanchez of the Pirates would be a great get, but the asking price is steep. Orlando Cabrera may be a good fit, and would elminate the need for Aaron Miles altogether with his ability to play short and second. (Crowd cheers wildly). That would give the Cubs Baker and Fontenot on the bench (assuming neither is dealt) and add versatility there. And the red herring of spring 2008, Brian Roberts, would still be a great fit. But, if it couldn't happen then, it won't happen now.
Pitching
Here's the tough side of the equation. The Cubs, when healthy, have the best rotation in the National League. But they're never healthy. They need another reliever, maybe two, with one being left-handed. This provides cover should Sean Marshall (quietly having a great year) be forced into the rotation. With Ted Lilly out until the middle of August, the Cubs probably need to deal for two pitchers. Either one starter (a veteran number 4/5 guy, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Zach Duke) and one reliever (lefties available include Jon Grabow, George Sherill, and Joe Beimel) or two relievers (one of the previous lefties, and another solid veteran, my dream being Chad Qualls of the Diamondbacks.) So. Having said all this, let's look at the potential moves that I would try to make as GM.
Move 1-Roy Halladay. He's fantastic, good enough to compensate for all the Cubs problems elsewhere, and getting him to the North Side means keeping him away from the rest of baseball's contenders. (Especially St. Louis and Milwauakee.) Of course, the Cubs have no chance of getting him. (Jake Peavy would also be in this category, but his injury has derailed his trade chances.)
So, moving past the pipe dream above. Any of the following moves would be a positive.
Any one of these hitters: Adam Dunn, Orlando Cabrera, Freddy Sanchez, Brian Roberts
Any one of these pitchers: Joe Beimel, George Sherill, Jon Grabow
Or, assuming the Cubs won't add a bat (and it looks unlikely), any two of these pitchers: Beimel, Sherill, Grabow, Chad Qualls, Jon Garland, Zach Duke
How likely are any of these moves? I think Hendry will trade for a lefty reliever. And considering that Beimel/Dunn, Sanchez/Grabow, and Sherill/Roberts are all combinations that play for the same team, it's easy to wonder if a package deal would be possible. Any of those combinations would make the team better, considerably so. None of them are likely. But I would almost guarantee at least one of the names I mentioned above will be a Cub before Friday. If not, that's probably okay. Just as long as they do something, I'll live with it. The only way I'd be disappointed is if they didn't try to add something.
Or if they recalled Aaron Miles. He really is terrible.
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